Just when Nigerians thought they had voted out scarcity of petroleum
products and long queues at the dispensing stations, it seems they are
back to square one. A situation that started tentatively and in isolated
places at the beginning of November has lingered. It has also become
more pervasive and widespread across the country with marketers giving
indications that scarcity may be with us till Christmas.
The last petrol crisis was in the last days of the President Goodluck
Jonathan administration just before the handover of government to
President Muhammadu Buhari. Upon transition, the entire scarcity palaver
had vanished as if the new president waved a wand. Suddenly, marketers
who were whining over fuel subsidy payments seemed to reach an unspoken
understanding with the new regime and pronto, fuel was everywhere in
abundance and queues disappeared.
Most remarkably, the pump price normalized back to N87 per litre from
as high as N300 per litre that petrol rose to at that time. Thus since
June this year up until end of October, Nigerians had enjoyed a period
of regular petroleum products supply at the regulated rate to the point
that some people must have thought the ugly old days were over for good.
Indeed, unfettered fuel supply has been noted as one of the gains of
the Buhari administration and an example of his ability to make crucial
changes in the polity without as much as lifting a finger – ‘body
language’, it is called.
Following upon this new talisman, many had even argued that there was
no subsidy after all. But the so-called subsidy was always there and
was mounting in size over the past five months. Today, it is said to
stand at about N413 billion and the federal government has been hit with
that sum. But even though the government may be willing to pay, it is
said that the time lag between payment and the next cycle of imports of
products may take the scarcity to Christmas. There is also the issue of
sourcing foreign exchange.
Here is how a marketer made the case: “In recent times, we have been
having issues with getting enough forex for our deals. Now we have a
huge sum ofN413 billion entering the system; loans will be paid in forex
as well as payments for products from international suppliers.
The Central Bank of Nigeria is not giving us a clear directive in
this regard. We will need forex but we do not know where to get it in
this quantum. Right now, the truth is that marketers don’t know how to
source forex with the recent CBN provision.”
While the prospect of Nigerians living with this grueling situation
of fuel scarcity and high prices till Christmas may be dire, the real
issue is that the new government of President Buhari is expected to have
taken the country out of debilitating incongruence of suffering in the
midst of plenty. Nigeria is among the top ten producers of crude oil in
the world yet she cannot produce enough for domestic consumption.
In the last three decades or so, Nigeria has exported crude oil and
imported refined petroleum products at a huge economic cost. Nigerians
will expect a lasting solution now more than ever before. It may be time
to review the so-called subsidy and cut it in phases; government must
set up a few modular refineries in the next two years if only to refine
for domestic consumption.
Nigerians who bear the brunt of this petrol paradox must be let down
that the All Progressives Congress (APC) government has allowed this
return to the PDP era and with President Buhari as substantive Petroleum
Minister, we urge him to devise a long-term strategic solution to this
malaise immediately.
